A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
